What’s in a name…
Unprecedented warming and the ‘Hockey Stick’ controversy
Current atmospheric change at unprecedented rates
Dutch Elfstedentocht: February 1985
464 months since any month was colder than average
Back to the race…..
How warm has is gotten?
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5137/
This past July was the hottest month every recorded. July 2023 was0.24 degrees Celsius (C) warmer than any other July in NASA’s record
Physical impacts of climate change are visible
The September 2023 Artic sea ice minimum is the 6th lowest and Antarctic maximum is is the lowest on record by a wide margin.
Warming and sea ice might now be decoupled…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuwOwqzT6rk
The argument for humans as the culprit (pop’n = 7.98 billion)
Haber-Bosch process (1909) and human population
Anthropocene Epoch: http://www.anthropocene.info/great-acceleration.php
Linking socio-economic trends to earth system changes post-1950
Greenhouse gases (ice cores) correlate to warming trends
Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Global Change and Water are intimately linked
Global Change: Fresh Water Scarcity for 2/3’s of the world
Global Change: Ocean acidification has multiple feedbacks
Global Change: Sea Level Rise
Paris Climate Agreement
- Accord between nation in UN to address climate change
- Goal to keep increase in global temperature below 2 °C
- pursue efforts to limit increase to 1.5
- pursue net zero emissions
- Contributions by country determined by that country
- no emissions targets or dates
- must go beyond current efforts
- framework for transparency
Are targets of the Paris Climate Agreement reachable?
Recent Paris Climate Agreement news..
What should we do….
- If CO2 emissions stopped today:
- 50% absorbed by land/water in 30 yrs
- 30% in atmosphere for centuries
- 20% in atmosphere for 1000 yrs
- Future warming is inevitable
- land sinks uncertain
- ocean sinks weakening
- Negative emissions techology?
